Hurricane season may ramp up a bit over the next 7-10 days w/action in southern Gulf of Mexico and in the far Atlantic w/Cape Verde system.The 8/5 WUWT post includes impressive simulated pictures of this tropical wave as a monster hurricane. That peaked my interest, so I've been keeping on eye on it. Here's the 2:00 PM update of the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook. This storm is the yellow X on the right - the notation "1 (20%)" refers to this storm.
A 10-12 day forecast of a developing tropical storm off the coast of Africa is the next frontier of tropical weather forecasting in 2020s.
Both mesoscale hurricane models HMON and HWRF develop wave off Africa (Invest 99L) into a powerful hurricane in 5-days in open Atlantic.
Thursday, August 10, 2017
A Look at How Bad Hurricane Forecasting Is
Six days ago, Watts Up With That had post with a fascinating title: "Hurricane drought to end? Models show Hurricane on track for East Coast". Naturally, I had to look. To my surprise, the intro to the post was a Tweet from Dr. Ryan Maue, a hurricane researcher I respect and have been following on these pages, since he was a student at Florida State University (earliest post?). Naturally, I had to read it.